Khả năng tiếp cận đường sắt đô thị và sự gia tăng giá trị bất động sản dọc tuyến: bằng chứng thực nghiệm cho phát triển đô thị định hướng giao thông công cộng (TOD) tại hà nội
Email:
thanhttm@utt.edu.vn
Từ khóa:
Đường sắt đô thị, Giá bất động sản, Mô hình định giá Hedonic Pricing, Phát triển đô thị định hướng giao thông công cộng, Hà Nội
Tóm tắt
Trong bối cảnh đô thị hóa nhanh chóng, phát triển đường sắt đô thị (ĐSĐT) là giải pháp chiến lược nhằm thúc đẩy mô hình đô thị định hướng giao thông công cộng (TOD) tại Hà Nội. Nghiên cứu này tập trung lượng hóa tác động của hệ thống ĐSĐT mới đến giá trị bất động sản, cụ thể là phân khúc chung cư. Thông qua mô hình định giá Hedonic Pricing, nghiên cứu đo lường mức độ biến động giá trị căn hộ dựa trên khả năng tiếp cận các nhà ga Metro. Dữ liệu được thu thập từ cổng thông tin Batdongsan.com.vn giai đoạn tháng 3/2025 – 9/2025. Sau quá trình sàng lọc, mẫu nghiên cứu bao gồm 230 căn hộ thuộc 66 dự án dọc tuyến Cát Linh - Hà Đông và Nhổn - Ga Hà Nội được đưa vào phân tích. Kết quả thực chứng chỉ ra rằng, sau khi kiểm soát các biến số về đặc điểm nội tại căn hộ (diện tích, số phòng, hướng) và tiện ích khu vực (trường học, bệnh viện, thương mại), khoảng cách tới nhà ga có tác động có ý nghĩa thống kê và mang giá trị kinh tế đáng kể. Cụ thể, giá bán chung cư giảm trung bình 12.3% cho mỗi kilômét gia tăng khoảng cách đến nhà ga gần nhất. Phát hiện này cung cấp bằng chứng thực nghiệm quan trọng về cơ chế "vốn hóa" lợi ích hạ tầng giao thông vào giá trị đất đai. Đây là cơ sở khoa học giúp các nhà hoạch định chính sách tối ưu hóa quy hoạch không gian, xây dựng các kịch bản tài chính hạ tầng và hoàn thiện chiến lược phát triển TOD bền vững cho các đô thị lớn tại Việt NamTài liệu tham khảo
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[13]. G. Debrezion, E. Pels, P. Rietveld, The Impact of Railway Stations on Residential and Commercial Property Value: A Meta-analysis, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 35 (2007) 161–180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9032-z.
[14]. Y. T. Peng, Z. C. Li, K. Choi, Transit-oriented development in an urban rail transportation corridor, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 103 (2017) 269–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2017.03.011.
[15]. H. Pan, J. Li, Q. Shen, C. Shi, What determines rail transit passenger volume? Implications for transit oriented development planning, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 57 (2017) 52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.016.
[16]. Y. Jiang, P. Gu, Z. Cao, Y. Chen, Impact of Transit-Oriented Development on Residential Property Values around Urban Rail Stations, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2674 (2020) 362–372. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198120911054.
[17]. C. Mulley, C. H. Tsai, When and how much does new transport infrastructure add to property values? Evidence from the bus rapid transit system in Sydney, Australia, Transport Policy, 51 (2016) 15–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.01.011.
[18]. D. B. Hess, T. M. Almeida, Impact of Proximity to Light Rail Rapid Transit on Station-area Property Values in Buffalo, New York, Urban Studies, 44 (2007) 1041–1068. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980701256005.
[19]. D. J. Gross, Estimating willingness to pay for housing characteristics: An application of the Ellickson bid-rent model, Journal of Urban Economics, (24) 1988 95–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(88)90049-6.
[20]. H. Sung, J. T. Oh, Transit-oriented development in a high-density city: Identifying its association with transit ridership in Seoul, Korea, Cities, 28 (2011) 70–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2010.09.004.
[21]. J. Yang, J. Quan, B. Yan, C. He, Urban rail investment and transit-oriented development in Beijing: Can it reach a higher potential?, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 89 (2016) 140–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.05.008.
[22]. K. J. Lancaster, A New Approach to Consumer Theory, Journal of Political Economy, 74 (1966) 132–157.
[23]. L. B. Smith, K. T. Rosen, G. Fallis, Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Markets, Journal of Economic Literature, 26 (1988) 29–64.
[24]. W. C. Liao, X. Wang, Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression, Journal of Housing Economics, 21 (2012) 16–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2011.11.001.
[25]. W. E. Diewert, J. de Haan, R. Hendriks, Hedonic Regressions and the Decomposition of a House Price Index into Land and Structure Components, Econometric Reviews, 34 (2015) 106–126.
[26]. M. Khoshnoud, G. S. Sirmans, E. N. Zietz, The Evolution of Hedonic Pricing Models, Journal of Real Estate Literature, 31 (2023) 1–47. https://doi.org/10.1080/09277544.2023.2201020.
[27]. L. P. Thuy, B. N. Tu, P. L. Tuan, T. Q. Binh, Effects of Urban Transportation Infrastructure Development Projects on Residential Land Price in Cau Giay District, Hanoi City, VNU Journal of Science: Earth and Environmental Sciences, 36 (2020) 85–97. https://doi.org/10.25073/2588-1094/vnuees.4522.
[28]. N. Tsumita, H. Kato, S. Choo, J. de Dios Ortúzar, M. B. Ulak, Urban railway network expansion on transit oriented development: Improvement in accessibility in four Asian developing cities, Asian Transport Studies, 9 (2023) 100097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eastsj.2023.100097.
[29]. M. D. Mankad, Comparing OLS based hedonic model and ANN in house price estimation using relative location, Spatial Information Research, 30 (2022) 107–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-021-00416-3.
[30]. L. M. Dorantes, A. Paez, J. M. Vassallo, Analysis of House Prices to Assess Economic Impacts of New Public Transport Infrastructure, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2245 (2011) 131–139. https://doi.org/10.3141/2245-16.
[31]. H. Wen, Y. Xiao, L. Zhang, School district, education quality, and housing price: Evidence from a natural experiment in Hangzhou, China, Cities, 66 (2017) 72–80.
[32]. T. Richardson, O. B. Jensen, How Mobility Systems Produce Inequality: Making Mobile Subject Types on the Bangkok Sky Train, Built Environment, 34 (2008) 218–231.
[2]. T. M. T. Truong, T. C. V. Nguyen, Travel Time Attractiveness in Motorcycle Dominated Cities: An Investigation of University Students’ Travel Behavior, [trong]: C. V. Nguyen et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Geotechnics, Civil Engineering & Development, Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, 203 (2022) 1723–1731. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7160-9_174.
[3]. T. C. Nguyen, H. D. Nguyen, H. T. Le, S. Kaneko, Residents’ preferred measures and willingness-to-pay for improving urban air quality: A case study of Hanoi city, Vietnam, Journal of Economics and Development, 24 (2022) 262–275. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-03-2021-0036.
[4]. T. M. T. Truong, H. B. Ly, D. Lee, B. T. Pham, S. Derrible, Analyzing travel behavior in Hanoi using Support Vector Machine, Transportation Planning and Technology, 44 (2021) 843–859. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2021.1992178.
[5]. T. C. V. Nguyen, T. M. T. Truong, Integrated Transport and Urban Development in Asian Developing Cities, Transportation Research Procedia, 82 (2025) 1562–1577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2024.12.141.
[6]. R. Mu, M. de Jong, Establishing the conditions for effective transit-oriented development in China: the case of Dalian, Journal of Transport Geography, 24 (2012) 234–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.02.010.
[7]. C. A. Agostini, G. A. Palmucci, The Anticipated Capitalisation Effect of a New Metro Line on Housing Prices, Fiscal Studies, 29 (2008) 233–256. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2008.00074.x.
[8]. P. Calthorpe, The Next American Metropolis, [trong]: S. M. Wheeler, T. Beatley (Eds.), The Sustainable Urban Development Reader, Routledge, London, 1993, pp. 86–93. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203501627-15.
[9]. E. Beyazit, Are wider economic impacts of transport infrastructures always beneficial? Impacts of the Istanbul Metro on the generation of spatio-economic inequalities, Journal of Transport Geography, 45 (2015) 12–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.03.009.
[10]. R. Cervero, K. Kockelman, Travel demand and the 3Ds: Density, diversity, and design, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2 (1997) 199–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1361-9209(97)00009-6.
[11]. W. Alonso, A Theory of the Urban Land Market, Routledge, London, 1983. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315128061.
[12]. B. P. Y. Loo, C. Chen, E. T. H. Chan, Rail-based transit-oriented development: Lessons from New York City and Hong Kong, Landscape and Urban Planning, 97 (2010) 202–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.06.002.
[13]. G. Debrezion, E. Pels, P. Rietveld, The Impact of Railway Stations on Residential and Commercial Property Value: A Meta-analysis, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 35 (2007) 161–180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9032-z.
[14]. Y. T. Peng, Z. C. Li, K. Choi, Transit-oriented development in an urban rail transportation corridor, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 103 (2017) 269–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2017.03.011.
[15]. H. Pan, J. Li, Q. Shen, C. Shi, What determines rail transit passenger volume? Implications for transit oriented development planning, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 57 (2017) 52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.016.
[16]. Y. Jiang, P. Gu, Z. Cao, Y. Chen, Impact of Transit-Oriented Development on Residential Property Values around Urban Rail Stations, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2674 (2020) 362–372. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198120911054.
[17]. C. Mulley, C. H. Tsai, When and how much does new transport infrastructure add to property values? Evidence from the bus rapid transit system in Sydney, Australia, Transport Policy, 51 (2016) 15–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.01.011.
[18]. D. B. Hess, T. M. Almeida, Impact of Proximity to Light Rail Rapid Transit on Station-area Property Values in Buffalo, New York, Urban Studies, 44 (2007) 1041–1068. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980701256005.
[19]. D. J. Gross, Estimating willingness to pay for housing characteristics: An application of the Ellickson bid-rent model, Journal of Urban Economics, (24) 1988 95–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(88)90049-6.
[20]. H. Sung, J. T. Oh, Transit-oriented development in a high-density city: Identifying its association with transit ridership in Seoul, Korea, Cities, 28 (2011) 70–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2010.09.004.
[21]. J. Yang, J. Quan, B. Yan, C. He, Urban rail investment and transit-oriented development in Beijing: Can it reach a higher potential?, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 89 (2016) 140–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.05.008.
[22]. K. J. Lancaster, A New Approach to Consumer Theory, Journal of Political Economy, 74 (1966) 132–157.
[23]. L. B. Smith, K. T. Rosen, G. Fallis, Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Markets, Journal of Economic Literature, 26 (1988) 29–64.
[24]. W. C. Liao, X. Wang, Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression, Journal of Housing Economics, 21 (2012) 16–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2011.11.001.
[25]. W. E. Diewert, J. de Haan, R. Hendriks, Hedonic Regressions and the Decomposition of a House Price Index into Land and Structure Components, Econometric Reviews, 34 (2015) 106–126.
[26]. M. Khoshnoud, G. S. Sirmans, E. N. Zietz, The Evolution of Hedonic Pricing Models, Journal of Real Estate Literature, 31 (2023) 1–47. https://doi.org/10.1080/09277544.2023.2201020.
[27]. L. P. Thuy, B. N. Tu, P. L. Tuan, T. Q. Binh, Effects of Urban Transportation Infrastructure Development Projects on Residential Land Price in Cau Giay District, Hanoi City, VNU Journal of Science: Earth and Environmental Sciences, 36 (2020) 85–97. https://doi.org/10.25073/2588-1094/vnuees.4522.
[28]. N. Tsumita, H. Kato, S. Choo, J. de Dios Ortúzar, M. B. Ulak, Urban railway network expansion on transit oriented development: Improvement in accessibility in four Asian developing cities, Asian Transport Studies, 9 (2023) 100097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eastsj.2023.100097.
[29]. M. D. Mankad, Comparing OLS based hedonic model and ANN in house price estimation using relative location, Spatial Information Research, 30 (2022) 107–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-021-00416-3.
[30]. L. M. Dorantes, A. Paez, J. M. Vassallo, Analysis of House Prices to Assess Economic Impacts of New Public Transport Infrastructure, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2245 (2011) 131–139. https://doi.org/10.3141/2245-16.
[31]. H. Wen, Y. Xiao, L. Zhang, School district, education quality, and housing price: Evidence from a natural experiment in Hangzhou, China, Cities, 66 (2017) 72–80.
[32]. T. Richardson, O. B. Jensen, How Mobility Systems Produce Inequality: Making Mobile Subject Types on the Bangkok Sky Train, Built Environment, 34 (2008) 218–231.
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09/03/2026
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30/07/2026
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11/08/2026
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15/08/2026
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Kiểu trích dẫn
Trương Thị Mỹ, T. (1786726800). Khả năng tiếp cận đường sắt đô thị và sự gia tăng giá trị bất động sản dọc tuyến: bằng chứng thực nghiệm cho phát triển đô thị định hướng giao thông công cộng (TOD) tại hà nội. Tạp Chí Khoa Học Giao Thông Vận Tải, 77(6), 774-788. https://doi.org/10.47869/tcsj.77.6.2
